About this data

Source: ONS, National population projections: 2024-based (28 April 2026); ONS mid-year population estimates

• Projections show what would happen if recent trends and ONS's assumptions held; they are not forecasts. They start from the mid-2024 population, so they don't include the mid-2025 estimate.
• The principal projection assumes net migration of 230,000 a year from mid-2027, a fertility rate of around 1.4 children per woman, and life expectancy that keeps rising. The high and low migration variants assume net migration of 455,000 and 105,000 a year from mid-2027; the zero net migration variant assumes as many people leave as arrive, every year from mid-2024. All other assumptions are the same.

This chart appears in Population growth.